Following the Bitcoin price surge back to $64,000, crypto analyst Rekt Capital is predicting a major breakout move in the coming weeks. In a new video analysis, the analyst forecasts a significant market movement around October 2024, based on historical precedents and current chart patterns.
Will October Be Bullish For Bitcoin Again?
Looking at the weekly chart, Rekt Capital identifies a downtrending channel. Over the past four weeks, BTC has been deviating below this channel, searching for support that would enable a price expansion above the channel’s bottom. This movement has been met with a “fantastic recovery,” signaling potential for a return to the channel top at around $67,000 in the coming weeks.
“The channel bottom rebound is crucial as it has historically taken price from the channel bottom to the top in approximately two weeks on average,” Rekt Capital explained. He highlighted the importance of weekly candle closes above specific levels, particularly at $67,500 and eventually at $71,500, which would mark a break from the reaccumulation range high established post-halving.
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“The consistent pattern of bouncing from the channel bottom to the top typically spans an average of two weeks, but in the current context, we are observing a potentially elongated consolidation phase at these lower levels,” explained Rekt Capital. This observation suggests that while the rebound trajectory follows historical patterns, the consolidation at lower prices could afford investors bargain buying opportunities.
Focusing on the technical thresholds, Rekt Capital emphasized the criticality of several weekly candle closes above pivotal price points. Firstly, a close above $66,000 would reconfirm the reaccumulation range’s lower boundary as a newfound support, setting the stage for further upward movement. More importantly, a decisive weekly close above $67,500 would signify a breach of the persistent lower highs trend that has dominated since March of this year.
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“The weekly close above these specific levels is not merely a technical achievement but a psychological victory for market participants, indicating a weakening of sell-side pressure and a regain of bullish momentum,” noted Rekt Capital.
Historically, Bitcoin shows a tendency to initiate major rallies approximately 150 to 160 days following a halving event. Drawing parallels from the post-halving periods of 2016 and 2020, the analyst suggested that similar conditions are currently forming, with Bitcoin being around 133 days post the latest halving.
“This cyclical observation aligns well with the current market dynamics, where Bitcoin is methodically testing and, in some cases, breaching important technical barriers,” he remarked. This comparison is not only based on temporal patterns but also on the qualitative nature of market behavior during these periods.
A significant point of analysis was the 21-week EMA, a key indicator often regarded as the bull market barometer. Rekt Capital highlighted its historical significance, noting, “Deviations below the 21-week EMA in bull markets typically offer lucrative buying opportunities, as seen in the 2021 cycle. Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating around this EMA, providing mixed signals that require vigilant interpretation.”
Looking ahead, the analyst projects that for Bitcoin to embark on a new parabolic phase leading to price discovery and potentially new all-time highs, it must first consolidate above the $71,500 level—representing the reaccumulation range high. This level has previously acted as a formidable resistance, and a weekly close above it would likely catalyze a major bullish phase.
“In the coming weeks, the market’s ability to uphold these critical supports and break through resistance levels with conviction will be paramount. This will determine the feasibility of a breakout aligning with historical patterns observed post-halving,” Rekt Capital concluded, suggesting that October could be pivotal for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
At press time, BTC traded at $63,956.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
