Polymarket, the decentralized prediction market, has been going strong as the 2024 US Presidential election nears. With its bets representing how a significant portion feels about the unwinding election process, many feel Biden will drop out after a lackluster performance in his debate against Trump and now a New York Times article.
The “Biden drops out of presidential race?” had 80% odds on Wednesday that the president of the US will drop out from the elections. It had already risen to 55% earlier that day and has now dropped to over 60%. This market only showed 20% odds of him dropping out last week. Now, it has risen tremendously and houses over $10 million in bets.
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The effects of Biden’s age were on display during the presidential debate last week, leading many from Washington and elsewhere to question his faculties while serving the free world. Apparently, Biden spoke to two of his allies in the White House about his concerns about being a candidate this year and eventually becoming the president for the second term.
The New York Times article headlined “Biden Tells Allies He Knows He Has Only Days to Salvage Candidacy,” read, “According to two allies who have spoken with him, Mr. Biden has emphasized that he is still deeply committed to the fight for re-election but understands that his viability as a candidate is on the line.”
It further stated that one of Biden’s allies said, “He knows if he has two more events like that, we’re in a different place,” referring to his disappointing performance against Trump. The White House responded to this article, claiming that it was fake and Biden did not convey the words.
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The presidential elections have caused betting action on Polymarket to rise massively. June’s trading volume on the application crossed $100 million. In another market in the application called “Presidential Election Winner 2024,” saw Kamala Harris’ odds of winning the election go up to 16% as Biden’s dropped to 13%. Trump leads by 62%.
