5 Reasons Ethereum Could Outperform Bitcoin in Dec and Jan

For the past two years, Bitcoin has come roaring back from 2022’s crypto winter. It was a tough one-year correction cycle, complete with a rash of cash crunches and liquidations of some big names in blockchain.

The crash was so devastating that a few Web3 founders who broke the law even went to jail in the aftermath of that broad market correction.

But BTC – the oldest, longest, most secured Satoshi chain, steadily ratcheted support levels upward over 2023 before melting up this year.

2025: Ethereum at a Glance

Meanwhile, Ethereum and altcoin prices have tracked along with Bitcoin’s rise. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, however, has failed to move with the same gusto, pushing the little orange coin’s fortunes higher.

What characterizes Bitcoin is its avowed simplicity as a global calculator for small sums representing vast amounts of value locked in by a secure computer hash protocol and market forces.

By comparison, Ethereum is built to handle more complexity as a global computer for anything you want. The market appreciates its potential to reliably host powerful smart contracts on a network governed by rules enforced by computer programming rather than trusted rulers policed by civil authorities.

Ethereum’s biggest challenge at the moment is simplifying complexity rather than getting bogged down while remaining a truly automated protocol and round table for its users.

The smart contract platform’s co-founder, Vitalik Buterin, highlighted this challenge in a Dec. 7 post on X. “If Ethereum gave up on verifiability and accepted committees and centralized intermediaries for everything, I would consider it no longer Ethereum,” he wrote.

While Ethereum’s lead team guides its development, here are five reasons crypto exchange values for its ETH tokens could eclipse BTC’s percentage growth over the next 60 days.

1. Ethereum Technical Analysis

As popular analyst Cryptos Batman recently told followers in a post on X, Ethereum’s price recently broke a 3-year bearish trend line. That could indicate a bullish trend reversal, with Ether taking flight like Bitcoin has in recent months.

Ethereum Breaks 3-Year Bearish Trendline

For the first time in 3 years, $ETH has closed a candle body above its upper bearish trendline.

This week’s retest is a healthy sign, setting the stage for a sustainable rally. Opportunities like this don’t come often. Don’t miss it! pic.twitter.com/9iJe3PhXbL

— BATMAN ⚡ (@CryptosBatman) December 9, 2024

“For the first time in 3 years, $ETH has closed a candle body above its upper bearish trendline,” Cryptos Batman wrote. “This week’s retest is a healthy sign, setting the stage for a sustainable rally. Opportunities like this don’t come often. Don’t miss it!”

2. Excellent Trump Bump Prospects

In addition to a strong technical backdrop for an Ether bull run, the political/regulatory situation for the asset could hardly be more favorable.

A pro-growth crypto policy was a signature promise of Trump’s campaign. That’s great for the blockchain industry overall but could be especially auspicious for Ethereum prices at exchange.

Ethereum and its ERC20s were always less safe than Bitcoin from regulatory uncertainty, so its price stands more to gain from a pro-growth administration that’s friendly to the decentralized finance business.

3. Santa Claus Rally for Ethereum Incoming?

In the history of liquid financial markets for tradable assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, there is usually a “Santa Claus” or year-end price rally that extends into January. Often this is the most profitable part of the calendar when these assets make their greatest gains on exchange markets.

So far, this pattern has held up in the experience of Bitcoin and altcoin markets, with BTC and alts like Ethereum making big leaps up the chart in December and January.

During the most recent Santa Claus rally immediately following a Bitcoin halving in 2020-21, like the current December to January period for 2024-2025, ETH’s price performance far surpassed that of BTC.

Here are the figures for that cycle:

Bitcoin’s high price on Dec. 21, 2022 was $24,059. But by Jan. 18, 2023, its top was $37,299. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s high price on Dec. 21, 2022 was $646. By Jan. 18, 2023, however, Ether traded at a high of $1,259. So BTC rallied by 55% while ETH jumped by 95%.

4. BTC Crushed Already ATHs in ‘24, Ether’s Waiting

As long as the fundamentals of value proposition and market conditions remain in line, the tendency of “mean reversion” or a return to the average trend line remains an important factor to consider in a cryptocurrency’s price.

What goes up must come down and what stays down has no where to go but back up again. Accordingly, average Ethereum prices on crypto exchanges look like they’re fixing to do just that in the markets up ahead.

Bitcoin has already melted up the chart in a way that Ether hasn’t so far on this macro market halving cycle. Remember, Bitcoin has already blown past its previous all-time high prices. Ethereum has yet to mark its past record high on this cycle. That means alt season is still ahead of us if markets retrace past crypto trends.

5. Institutions Are Catching Up to Ethereum

While Bitcoin is firmly in the regulated and safe column for institutional investors on Wall Street, altcoins have yet to reach this “most favored nation” status with US financial and commodities regulators.

Ethereum stands out from the rest of the altcoins in that it appears to be well on its way to Bitcoin’s level of mainstream acceptance. At least it has spot ETF products for regulated investors like Bitcoin.

However, the trend toward increased institutional adoption of Ethereum is a tailwind for its price, which markets are counting on as the exchanges continuously revise the valuation for Ether.