France’s National Gaming Authority (ANJ) is reportedly planning to block access to Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market that gained prominence during the US presidential election.
The platform, which operates on decentralized technology, recorded $3.5 billion in trading volume as users wagered on election outcomes.
According to a report from French news outlet The Big Whale, ANJ is investigating Polymarket’s operations to assess its compliance with French gambling laws.
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French Trader Earns Millions By Betting On Trump
This scrutiny intensified after a French trader, identified as “Theo,” placed multimillion-dollar bets on Donald Trump’s re-election. Theo reportedly earned a $47 million payout following Trump’s victory, sparking widespread regulatory concerns.
The French regulator is reportedly considering blocking Polymarket’s domain names and pressuring media outlets to avoid linking to the platform.
However, technical restrictions could be circumvented, as users only need a crypto wallet to access Polymarket, and identity verification is not required. Virtual private networks (VPNs) may also allow users to bypass potential restrictions.
Polymarket, which processed over $294 million in trading volume on 5 November 2024 alone, has faced regulatory scrutiny before. In 2021, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) began investigating the platform for alleged violations of market regulations.
French guy makes $50 Million bag on Polymarket, and the regulators IMMEDIATLY rush to ban it
Can't be having any Winners in Europe
This whole continent is a fuckin joke at this point https://t.co/qlgwsz07Ym pic.twitter.com/ujJK8CiL9x
— Wazz (@WazzCrypto) November 7, 2024
The CFTC has since proposed rules to address potential manipulation risks in prediction markets. Despite this, the industry continues to attract billions in wagers globally, raising concerns about insider trading and market manipulation.
The trader Theo first gained attention after being identified in a Reuters report two weeks before Election Day. Polymarket later confirmed that it had contacted Theo, describing the individual as an experienced trader with a background in financial services.
The platform’s investigation concluded that Theo’s bets were based on personal political views, rather than any attempt to manipulate the market.
Polymarket operates uniquely compared to traditional betting platforms. By leveraging blockchain technology, it enables users to place cryptocurrency-based wagers without intermediaries.
While the company currently controls which betting proposals are listed, this could evolve if the platform decentralizes through a token launch.
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Polymarket Demonstrates Predictive Accuracy
Despite its regulatory challenges, Polymarket has demonstrated predictive accuracy in the past. It correctly forecasted Donald Trump’s win and Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race weeks before these events occurred.
However, its growing influence and substantial trading volumes have made it a target for regulators worldwide.
Earlier this year, five US Senators and three House representatives called for a ban on betting activities linked to the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
The bipartisan group consists of prominent figures such as Senators Jeff Merkley, Richard Blumenthal, Elizabeth Warren, and Representatives Jamie Raskin and John Sarbanes, among others.
The group expressed concerns over the possibility of billionaires leveraging large wagers to sway election outcomes, thereby eroding public trust in the democratic process.
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