Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 presidential election have surged significantly in recent days, according to various prediction markets and forecasts
Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 presidential election have surged significantly in recent days, according to various prediction markets and forecasts. On July 12, Predictit reported Trump’s victory odds at around 60%, up from 15% at the beginning of the year. Decision Desk HQ’s latest forecast gives Trump a 54.9% chance of winning, with an average projection of 278 electoral votes compared to Biden’s 260. Biden’s probability stands at 45.1%, with 226 electoral votes. In swing states, Trump’s chances are notably high, with 75% in Nevada and 73% in Arizona. Nate Silver’s forecast shows Trump with a 72.2% chance of winning and 297 electoral votes, while Biden holds a 27.3% chance. The Economist’s projection is even more favorable, giving Trump a 74% chance of winning and 307 electoral votes, with Biden at 221. On Polymarket, Trump’s odds have reached an all-time high of 70%. The betting markets have reacted sharply, with Trump’s chances increasing from 59% to 67% in just 20 minutes. This surge follows an incident where Trump was injured during a rally in Pennsylvania, which has further influenced the betting markets. Additionally, PoliFi tokens such as $MAGA and $TREMP have surged.
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